The best thing about Davis Cup? Could it be the draw ceremony photos? The players laugh, shake hands, talk to each other, even throw a hug out now and then. We get to see them interact, in other words, something we don’t see much of on the regular tour, where they face their opponents and the press alone. It’s natural that they seem happier and more human in these team shots, but it’s also strange to me. At the ties I’ve covered, the players have mostly approached the media under a cloud of glum obligation and overarching anxiety. That is, unless they’ve just won the whole thing, in which case they chant their country’s name and try to pants each other on the way into the interview room.
We can believe the smiles in the photos, though, because for once these tennis players have someone on their side—for once not everyone is an opponent or a potential opponent. That's what it will be like for the boys this weekend, when the Cup's four quarterfinals take place. With all of them being held on dirt, it will also be a de facto opening of the clay season. Here are quick previews of each tie.
*****
Austria vs. Spain
Castellon, Spain
Spain’s at home again, which essentially means that they’re going to win again. The defending champs have won 22 straight ties on their own soil—they’re own dirt.
You can see why when you consider that even without their best player, Rafael Nadal, they can still field a team with two singles players in the Top 12. Nicolas Almagro takes over for Nadal and gets the first singles rubber against Jurgen Melzer. The Austrian beat him the last time they played on clay, in Monte Carlo in 2011, though today Almagro dryly noted that that was a different Melzer.
“When we played in Monte Carlo,” Almagro said, “he was playing with his best ranking, he was playing really good, so it’s a little bit different now.”
Austria should hope that it’s not too different, because they need Melzer to win to have any kind of shot this weekend. The second singles is between world No. 5 David Ferrer and world No. 139 Andreas Haider-Maurer. I would mention that Haider-Maurer beat the higher-ranked Alex Bogomolov, Jr., earlier this year in Davis Cup, except that, let's face it, Bogie is no Ferru, especially in this competition. Ferrer is 17-4 lifetime for Spain. Davis Cup is what he does.
Spain has a new captain in Alex Corretja, so why not a new doubles team as well? The Lopez-Verdasco act was pretty stale by the end of 2011. Corretja will try out a Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez.
Winner: Spain
*****
USA vs. France
Monte Carlo Country Club
Roquebrune, France
The Monte Carlo Country Club isn’t in Monte Carlo after all, or at least not for the purposes of this tie. France wanted clay, but they didn’t want to go down the bumpy indoor road that the Swiss so infamously went down a couple of months ago against the U.S. team. So the French traveled as far south as they could go, right to the Mediterranean.
The setting should make this one look like a blockbuster, and the match-ups are unpredictable enough that it could turn out that way. The U.S. will put a fresh and extremely fired up face out first in Ryan Harrison. He goes up against France’s No. 1, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is 9-2 in Davis Cup (one of those losses came at the hands of Rafael Nadal on clay). Harrison, ranked No. 66, and Tsonga, ranked No. 6, have never played. The Frenchman goes in as the favorite on DC experience and ranking alone, but clay isn’t his best surface. It will be a lot for the young American to take in at once. He’ll have to manage his emotions over a long afternoon, but I expect him to make a run.
A likely Tsonga win makes the second singles, between John Isner and Gilles Simon, a must for the Americans. It’s a tough one to pick. Isner has beaten Simon the only two times they’ve played, but they were each on hard courts and each were close—the latest was 7-5 in the third set in Indian Wells a few weeks ago. As a Yank, Isner should technically be the underdog on clay, but he’s played some of the best tennis of his career, against Nadal last year at the French Open and against Federer in Davis Cup in February, on the stuff. Simon is 3-5 in Davis Cup; Isner is 3-3. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Five sets, perhaps?
The doubles, as usual, should be the Americans get out of jail free card. Mike and Bob Bryan will go up against Michael Llodra and Julien Benneteau. The Bros are 19-2 in DC overall, and 9-0 on clay. In the reverse singles, if there aren't any substitions, Tsonga and Isner are 1-1. Would it surprise you that both of their matches were decided in third-set tiebreakers? As for Simon and Harrison, the Frenchman beat the American in three sets in Indian Wells last month.
Winner: U.S.
*****
Czech Republic vs. Serbia
Prague
This one is a rematch of the semis two years ago, when the Serbs swept past the Czechs on the final day, and eventually swept to their first Davis Cup title.
There’s one obvious difference this time around: Novak Djokovic, who came off the bench to help win that 2010 tie, isn’t playing for the Serbs, while the Czechs have their usual two singles stalwarts, Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek, a duo that has been to the final before.
In 2010, Janko Tipsarevic played the hero by beating Berdych in five sets on the first day and Stepanek in straights to clinch it. Tipsy, ranked No. 8 now and 31-12 lifetime in DC singles, will play the 24th-ranked Stepanek in the second rubber.
That one will follow Berdych vs. Troicki. The Czech, currently ranked No. 7, is 17-11 in Davis Cup singles and 2-1 lifetime against the 27th-ranked Troicki.
Perhaps the most interesting element of this tie is Czech captain Jarolslav Navratil’s decision, for the moment anyway, to play Lukas Rosol and Frantisek Cermak in the doubles and keep his singles duo fresh for Sunday. Navratil himself says he doesn’t expect his team to win the dubs. Still, it must be hard to keep Berdych and Stepanek on the bench. Combined, the two of them are 24-3 in Davis Cup doubles.
Winner: Serbia
*****
Croatia vs. Argentina
Buenos Aires
The pressure is always on the Argentines when they go out for Davis Cup: They’re the consensus best team never to win it, their longtime anchor, David Nalbandian, may be the best Davis Cup singles player never to win it, and, worst of all, their country cares. Now, in 2012, they really don’t have any excuses. All of their ties, from the quarters against the Croats on, will be played at home.
The Argies, like all of the home teams this weekend, have chosen clay for this clash of the titanically tall. Nalbandian will start against 6-foot-6 Marin Cilic. Almost as surprising as Cilic’s current ranking—is he really still as high as 23?—is Nalbandian’s record against him. The Argentine has lost just one set in their four matches.
Next up is the 6-foot-6 Juan Martin del Potro vs. the 6-foot-10 Ivo Karlovic. We know it’s never easy against Dr. Ace, but del Potro did just beat him, in straight sets—without having to go a tiebreaker!—last week in Miami.
On paper, the Croats last stand should come in the doubles, where they’ll put out Cilic and his partner, the fabulously named Lovro Zovko, against Nalbandian and Eduardo Schwank. Unfortunately for Croatia, Nalby’s a pretty solid doubles player as well. He’s 13-5 overall in DC, and he and Schwank gave the Argies their only point in the final against Spain last year.
The pressure, from within and without, will be there, but you have to think Argentina will withstand it this time
Winner: Argentina
